흑해 전쟁 지역 : 현대의 현실
러시아-우크라이나 전쟁은 여러 국가의 해양 안보 개념을 크게 변화시켰다

The economic importance of the Black Sea region is due to active trade and sea routes – both traditional and planned. Also important are the presence of oil and gas fields and strategic gas pipelines, plus significant scale of fishing. At the same time, the Black Sea region has the greatest military and political importance for the countries of Europe, the Near and Middle East due to its central geographical position.

As the experience of the Russian Navy in 2015-2019 in Syria against the opponents of the country’s President B. Assad showed, despite the fact that the Black Sea is a closed water basin, control over it makes it possible to conduct military operations in the Caucasus, Asia Minor and Eastern Europe, in the western part of Central Asia, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, for which the fleets require appropriate weapons and modern ships.

At the same time, the peculiarities of the entry of ships into the Black Sea, its “closed” nature and specific legal status allow, for example, Turkey to restrict the passage of naval vessels of states that are not adjacent to this region (for example, the USA, China or Brazil). According to the Montreux Convention, large ships of the navies of non-Black Sea states cannot freely pass through the Turkish-controlled Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

The state of the fleets of the leading maritime powers of the Black Sea region

The Black Sea region includes Russia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Georgia and Abkhazia (it is not officially recognized by any Black Sea state except Russia, but there are about 15 thousand Russian troops on its territory plus a Russian naval base in the city of Gudauta).

Georgia does not have a navy – after the war with Russia in August 2008, it abolished them, and transferred the material part of the former fleet to its small naval guard.

Russia is the most active in updating its fleet in the Black Sea. In the period from 2014 to the beginning of the war with Ukraine, more than 30 new warships and boats were delivered, including those carrying medium-range cruise missiles “Caliber”. The Russian Black Sea Fleet received 3 frigates of Project 11356, 3 small missile ships of Project 21631, 2 patrol ships of Project 22160, 6 submarines of Project 636.3, 2 sea minesweepers of Project 12700 and other smaller ships.

In addition, the fleet got the new multi-role fighters Su-30SM, anti-sabotage, landing boats and support vessels, coastal anti-ship missile systems. It is interesting that since 2014, Russia is not obliged anymore to coordinate the actions of its fleet in the Black Sea with Ukraine, while earlier, according to the 1997 agreement, Russia did not have the right to update the combat composition of its Black Sea Fleet without the consent of Ukraine.

It is also important that with the development and strengthening of the Black Sea Fleet, Russia is increasing the presence of its troops on the Crimean Peninsula and creating production capacities for the construction of the required number of new ships. Thus, by 2028, the Russian Black Sea Fleet should include Project 20380 corvettes, Project 22160 patrol ships, and Project 22800 small missile ships.

The fleets of two neighboring NATO countries, Romania and Bulgaria, also operate in the Black Sea basin. However, they suffer from insufficient funding, which does not allow them to purchase new warships or modernize existing ones. The Bulgarian Navy has 4 frigates (one Soviet, 2 Belgian-built in the 1980s), 2 Soviet anti-submarine corvettes, 3 missile boats, and 4 minesweepers. Romania independently produced its warships. Its fleet consists of 1 submarine, 3 frigates, 4 corvettes, 4 missile boats, 4 minesweepers and a minelayer.

It is significant that as NATO members, Romania and Bulgaria have naval bases and supply points on the Black Sea (the port of Varna in Bulgaria and the port of Constanta in Romania), which can be used by American, French, Italian or British navies. Romania also has land-based launchers and detection systems, and the country’s air force has American F-16A aircraft purchased from Portugal.

A completely different picture is observed with the Turkish navy. It controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits and the exit from the Black Sea. The Montreux Convention gives the Turkish authorities the right to regulate the movement of civilian and military ships through the Black Sea straits. Therefore, regardless of its actual naval forces, Turkey has a powerful leverage over all Black Sea and non-Black Sea powers.

The Turkish Navy consists of 12 submarines, 16 frigates, 10 corvettes with guided missile weapons and 19 missile boats. In 2016, the first universal landing ship of Turkish construction was launched. Despite the impressive composition of ships and high defense costs, Turkey has many conflicts and conflict areas around both in the Black and Mediterranean Seas – Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, territorial disputes with Greece and Israel.

We must not forget that almost the entire territory of Turkey is surrounded by sea – and for this reason, military cover of the entire length of the maritime borders does not seem possible for the Turkish fleet.

The situation with the Ukrainian fleet looks the most confusing and complicated. As a result of the division of the USSR Black Sea Fleet in 1991, Ukraine received a large number of ships that gradually became obsolete, were decommissioned and sold for scrap to third countries. In 2014, more than 50 ships and vessels of the Ukrainian fleet ended up under Russian control in Crimea. Since then, the only additions to its combat strength have been small armored river boats “Gyurza-M”, as well as landing and assault boats of the “Centaur” class and American patrol ships “Island”.

Since the beginning of the military conflict with Russia, all large ships of the Ukrainian fleet have been destroyed, and at the moment, Kyiv’s only hope is to build military vessels for its Black Sea Fleet in Turkey.

What is next, and for how long the Black Sea will be closed?

If we try to predict what the navies of individual countries in the Black Sea basin will look like, then two factors should be taken into account. The first is the availability of funding (Russia and Turkey will obviously continue to build up their forces). But Bulgaria and Romania, not to mention Ukraine, are unlikely to be able to finance their navies. The second is the positioning of the navies and the assessment by each state of the role of the Black Sea basin in ensuring both its economic interests and national security in general.

Separately, it is worth assessing the situation in the Black Sea in light of the continuation of military actions between Ukraine and Russia. Having lost all its large vessels, Ukraine, with the help of Great Britain and Turkey in particular, is actively using unmanned boats against the Russian fleet. Constant Ukrainian attacks with their use are forcing the Russian Black Sea Fleet to face serious problems in the western part of the Black Sea. Ukraine is also actively using anti-ship missiles from the Odessa and Nikolaev area, which has already led to the loss of several large vessels by Russia, including the fleet flagship, the cruiser “Moskva”.

For this reason, a unified system for combating unmanned vessels is being created in the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and no one in the world has done anything like this before. And the main target for Russian troops in this region is the port of Odessa, which provides Ukraine with access to the Black Sea. Russian President Putin has repeatedly called this city “Russian” and made it clear that its occupation is one of the main goals of the conflict with Ukraine. Meanwhile, an assault on this city from the sea by landing troops is unlikely due to the inevitable large losses and destruction. Therefore, if it comes to the capture of Odessa by Russian troops, it will be carried out through a ground operation from land.

Meanwhile, I would like to assess separately the losses of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, which the Russian naval command clearly did not expect. Because even in the absence of its own fleet, the Ukrainian army still poses a great danger to it. As is known, since February 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been actively participating in the armed conflict with Ukraine. Its ships are used mainly to launch “Caliber” cruise missiles, and marine units take part in battles on land.

During the conflict, a missile strike from land by the Neptune complex disabled the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser “Moskva”, and in total, 17 ships and boats, as well as 1 submarine, have sunk or received serious damage. During the fighting, according to official reports, Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Captain 1st Rank A. Paliy, and the commander of the Black Sea Fleet Marine Brigade, Colonel Aleksey Sharov, were killed.

In September 2023, as a result of a missile strike from Ukrainian territory, the Russian Black Sea fleet B-237 submarine and the large landing ship “Minsk” were seriously damaged. A little later, another missile strike was launched at the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, as a result of which its building was significantly damaged.

All this led to the fact that in October 2023, after Ukrainian missile strikes, a significant part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was withdrawn from Sevastopol to the ports of Feodosia in eastern Crimea and Novorossiysk in the northeast of the Russian Black Sea coast. 17 military vessels were transferred to Novorossiysk, including 3 submarines and 2 frigates. Meanwhile, if Russian forces plan to efficiently control the coast of Ukraine and carry out some landing operations on the coast, they will have to resort to the services of the navy again to strike Ukrainian territory from the sea.

I think it is worth mentioning another important event of the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia – the capture of Zmeiny Island off the coast of Ukraine with the participation of the cruiser “Moskva” and the patrol corvette “Vasily Bykov”. The landing of troops by the Russian side was carried out without losses, and a garrison and a battery of surface-to-surface missiles were deployed on the island. However, then the Russian command, for reasons that are still unclear, considered it inappropriate to hold this island, and after a strike by the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drone, a Russian Project 11770 landing craft and the tugboat “Spasatel Vasily Bekh” were sunk.

The prospects for the naval confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, which has practically paralyzed normal shipping in the Black Sea, look very vague. Theoretically, the Russian Black Sea Fleet remains the strongest in the region, but due to the threat of missile attacks from land by both Ukraine and NATO countries (Romania, Bulgaria, and in the future – Turkey), it cannot fully ensure the security and interests of Russia. If NATO countries continue to escalate the conflict and place F-16 aircraft in region (particularly in Romania and Moldova), then the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be in even greater danger there.

The future status of Russian troops in Syria, which are 90 percent supported and supplied by the Black Sea Fleet and its ships, also remains unclear. If Turkey closes the straits for the passage of these ships into the Mediterranean Sea from the Black Sea (and this is possible in the event of a deterioration in relations between Moscow and Ankara and an escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia), then the Russian naval and air force bases in Syria will simply not be able to exist.

In general, while the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues (and its real end is unlikely in the foreseeable future), the situation in the Black Sea and adjacent areas will remain extremely tense. And this is a firm guarantee of prevention of the restoration of normal shipping in the Black Sea basin for both military and civilian traffic.