“동결된” 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 속 향후 흑해에 대한 전망

Following the occupation of Crimea in 2014, the Black Sea ceased to be a zone of economic cooperation and prosperity, instead becoming a theater of war. The Kremlin transformed Crimea into a heavily militarized stronghold, leveraging its position to achieve strategic dominance. The deployment of advanced missile systems in occupied Crimea extended Russian influence across the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean. As a result, Russia’s military presence in Crimea evolved into a direct threat to all Black Sea nations, including NATO members.

Moscow’s long-term objective was the systematic dismantling of international maritime law in the Black Sea region. Through a combination of military coercion, hybrid operations, and aggressive maneuvers—ranging from unlawful sea zone closures to restricting navigation through the Kerch Strait—Russia effectively dictated the terms of maritime access. By 2021-2022, the Kremlin was on the verge of cementing absolute control over both the Black and Azov Seas, with severe implications for Ukraine’s national security and economic stability.

Ukraine’s Counteroffensive in the Maritime Domain

Paradoxically, Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea began to erode following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, leveraging innovative maritime drone technology and precision strikes, inflicted significant losses on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As a result, Russian warships were forced to withdraw from their Crimean bases, relocating to ports along Russia’s Black Sea coastline. This shift allowed Ukraine to secure key maritime trade routes, particularly the corridor between Odesa and the Bosporus, ensuring the continued flow of commercial shipments vital to the country’s economy.

However, the potential implementation of a ceasefire along the entire Russo-Ukrainian front raises critical concerns. A blanket cessation of hostilities could constrain Ukraine’s ability to employ naval drones and other strategic assets to safeguard its maritime security. Meanwhile, Russia could exploit the ceasefire to revert to hybrid warfare tactics, gradually reasserting control over the Black Sea through covert military actions, disguised attacks on commercial vessels, and escalatory maneuvers targeting Ukraine and its allies.

A key vulnerability is the status of the Turkish-controlled Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey has restricted the passage of military vessels through these straits due to the ongoing war. However, in a “frozen conflict” scenario, these restrictions could be lifted, potentially enabling Russia to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet with warships redeployed from the Baltic, Northern, and Pacific Fleets. Given the relative weakness of Ukraine’s naval capabilities—as well as those of Romania and Bulgaria – such a development could once again tilt the balance of power in Moscow’s favor.

For Turkey, the re-emergence of a dominant Russian naval presence in the Black Sea would constitute a direct geopolitical challenge. Consequently, Ankara’s strategic calculus must be considered when evaluating potential ceasefire arrangements.

Strategic Imperatives for Ukraine

In shaping its position on ceasefire negotiations and potential international military deployments in Ukraine, Kyiv should prioritize the Black Sea theater alongside the land-based front. A comprehensive ceasefire agreement must include provisions for:

1. The Demilitarization of Occupied Crimea – Russia must withdraw all military assets, including its Black Sea Fleet, from the peninsula.
2. Operational Restrictions on the Russian Black Sea Fleet – Moscow must be prohibited from conducting military operations in designated sectors of the Black Sea, particularly in the western region.
3. Limits on Russian Naval Reinforcement – Any ceasefire agreement must prevent Russia from circumventing existing constraints under the Montreux Convention by transferring warships from other fleets into the Black Sea.

These measures would serve as the foundation for neutralizing the primary destabilizing factor in the Black Sea – the operational presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Moreover, the demilitarization of Crimea would set the stage for its eventual reintegration into Ukraine, contingent upon favorable conditions.

Ultimately, any negotiation process regarding the “freezing” of the Russo-Ukrainian war must incorporate the maritime domain as a core component. Failure to do so risks enabling Russia to exploit the Black Sea as a strategic lever, undermining Ukraine’s long-term security and reinforcing Moscow’s hegemonic ambitions in the region.