마한의 교훈, 조선소에서 시작되는 바다의 힘

Alfred Thayer Mahan’s theory of sea power was simple yet profoundly resonant. A great nation must ensure that naval power, merchant shipping, and overseas markets work together like the cogs of a great wheel, creating a virtuous cycle. These three pillars are the driving force of national wealth, the foundation of security, and the wings of global influence. For much of the 20th century, the United States faithfully practiced this principle and reigned over the seas. Yet today, paradoxically, the very theory America once exported to the world has been more faithfully absorbed and vigorously applied by China.

The numbers tell the story without mercy. China now possesses more than 370 warships, surpassing America’s roughly 290. Even more striking is the shipbuilding gap. China accounts for nearly half of the world’s commercial ship construction, while the United States struggles to reach even 1%. This is not simply a matter of money. Since the end of the Cold War, the industrial base has withered; the hammer strikes and sparks of welding that once resounded in American shipyards have gone silent, replaced by stillness. As a result, the U.S. Navy, despite ample funding, faces the painful reality of being unable to build ships on time.

China, on the other hand, has put Mahan’s lessons into practice almost as if following a textbook. The expansion of its navy, the rapid growth of its merchant fleet, and its overseas port investments under the Belt and Road Initiative are woven into a vast maritime network. Naval power protects shipping, shipping expands markets, and markets in turn sustain naval power. This virtuous cycle is the heartbeat of China’s rise at sea. The result is a Chinese navy that not only enjoys numerical superiority but is also narrowing the qualitative gap, sending waves that directly challenge the United States.

If Mahan could witness this scene today, he might say: “Maritime supremacy is not born in budget ledgers. It is born in the furnace of the shipyard, in the hands of welders, in the strokes of engineers, and in the depths of the dry dock.” The United States, once the preacher of Mahan’s vision, is now in the ironic position of having to relearn his teachings from its rival.

Yet within this irony lies opportunity. For America to regain its maritime strength, it cannot sail alone. Cooperation with allies is essential, particularly with South Korea and Japan, which still possess the world’s most advanced shipbuilding industries. The shipyards of Busan, Geoje, and Ulsan continue to blaze with fire, launching the world’s most sophisticated tankers, LNG carriers, and warships into the sea. In these industrial furnaces, America can rediscover hope. By joining hands with Korea, the United States can fill its industrial void and rebuild the foundations of sea power.

The policy implications are clear. The United States can no longer navigate the turbulent waters of the Indo-Pacific with strategy papers and rhetoric alone. It needs steel hulls afloat on the ocean. To achieve this, cooperation with allies in shipbuilding, technology sharing, and a dramatic expansion of production capacity are essential. This is not merely about increasing ship numbers. Unless the triad of navy, merchant fleet, and markets, Mahan’s enduring pillars, is restored, no nation can maintain maritime supremacy for long.

Today, the shadow of Mahan still hangs over the maritime rivalry between the U.S. and China. China follows that shadow’s voice to rewrite the maritime order, while America pays a heavy price for neglecting it. Yet the path to reversal remains open. When the United States once again places shipyards at the center of its national strategy and, together with its allies, opens a new “Alliance Shipyard of the Sea,” the destiny of the oceans can still be changed. If not, the balance of maritime power will soon tilt eastward, and the tide of history will be beyond anyone’s power to resist.